By Gary Wulf
of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
SUPERIOR, Neb. (Dow Jones)--Basis premiums paid for feed grains and soybeans continued to erode Thursday, as producers utilized near-perfect weather conditions to ramp up a long-delayed fall harvest.
"Hopefully this will mark a changing trend in the weather and help us finish a meaningful amount [of fall harvest] by Thanksgiving," said eHedger analyst Justin Kelly. "The trade is currently looking for soybeans to be 75% complete by next Monday and corn [harvest] to be 35-40% complete."
Truck/rail basis bids for spot shipments of soybeans dropped by as much as 14 cents a bushel at major interior markets monitored daily by Dow Jones Newswires, with declines of as many as 5 cents also seen in domestic corn and grain sorghum values. Interior wheat basis was mixed.
Cash-contracts of most US grain futures weakened overnight, shedding about 1 cent for oats, 3-4 cents for wheat and 6 cents for soybeans. December CBOT corn closed unchanged.
"Cash basis tone continues to weaken as harvest advances. Private production estimates do not offer a bullish fundamental baseline," offered early Market News analyst Duane Lowry, adding, "current prices are significantly inflated," as speculators focus on hopes for a continued demise in the value of the dollar, which usually enhances export demand for US grain.
National cash price indices maintained by the Minneapolis Grain Exchange stand at $9.51 1/2 for soybeans, reflecting an average basis of -44 cents relative to Wednesday's settlement of November CBOT futures. Domestic cash prices also average $3.51 1/4 for corn (-32 3/4 cents basis December CBOT), $4.40 for hard red winter wheat (-86 3/4 cents basis December KCBT wheat), $4.06 3/4 for soft red winter wheat (-$1.14 1/4 basis December CBOT wheat) and $5.23 1/4 for hard red spring wheat (-12 1/2 cents basis December MGE wheat).
CROP WEATHER
Rain was nearly nonexistent across the US grain belt Thursday, aside from a few light showers in the Delta and southern Atlantic coastal region.
"We remain in the middle of the best stretch of harvest weather that we have seen so far this fall, and the weather forecast for next week continues to look more and more favorable," said Freese-Notis Weather. "With temperatures turning much warmer today in the Plains and western Corn Belt and overspreading all of the Corn Belt and Delta for tomorrow, this is about as good as it gets as far as November weather is concerned."
Some light rains are forecast to redevelop Sunday in the far northwestern Corn Belt--and move across the entire Midwest by Tuesday--but the service said weather models, "continue to be less and less impressive on the rainfall totals," with most areas receiving less than a quarter-inch of precipitation.
"The way things are shaping up, there may not be too many soybeans left to harvest by the time we get to around November 13," concluded Freese-Notis.
-By Gary Wulf; Dow Jones Newswires; Gary.Wulf@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
11-05-09 0942ET
Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
