Commodities Market Impact Weather: Mostly Dry Harvest Weather

OMAHA (Dow Jones)--Mostly dry harvest weather, possible tropical-storm-related rain in the Delta, favorable conditions for winter wheat, showers in store for Brazil, favorable trends in Argentina, near-term showers for South Africa, possible rain or snow in central China, and variable impact from fall rains in Europe are the main weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

Mostly Dry Harvest Weather

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for favorable harvest conditions in the Midwest. Mainly dry and mainly very warm weather will favor harvest and winter wheat planting for at least the next week, possibly longer.

Possible Tropical-Related Delta Rain

In the Delta, drier and warmer weather will help improve conditions for harvesting summer crops and planting winter wheat through Sunday. Wet weather early next week will likely slow field work again. This rain could be even heavier if moisture associated with tropical storm Ida gets involved. The tropical storm is in the far western Caribbean Sea, and is projected to track north into the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.

Favorable Winter Wheat Conditions

Plains winter wheat areas have favorable soil moisture. A turn to warmer, drier weather during the next six days will favor the remaining planting and pre-winter crop development.

Showers for Brazil

Increasing thunderstorm activity begins in southern Brazil and spreads into the north Thursday through Sunday. These showers will maintain favorable soil moisture for early crops, but could again slow field work and planting.

Favorable Trends in Argentina

In Argentina, a few scattered thundershowers are possible Friday night into Saturday, especially over Cordoba and northern Buenos Aires. Conditions favor planting of summer crops and developing winter wheat except in some fringe areas of the northwest and southwest where it is too dry.

Near-Term Showers for South Africa

South Africa crop areas had a few thunderstorms Wednesday, heaviest in the usually drier western maize areas. The outlook for early next week does not look as active today as it did Wednesday. However, there should still be at least some shower activity. There are no significant concerns at this time. However, with a building El Nino, this region may be subject to some problems during the growing season.

Possible Rain or Snow in Central China

Thursday's long-range charts continue to suggest a chance for rain or rain changing to snow early next week in central China which, if real, would mostly favor pre-winter growth of crops.

Variable Impact from Europe Rainfall

Episodes of rain and cool conditions through west, central and southeast Europe will provide favorable moisture for pre-winter growth of wheat and rapeseed. However, there will also be delays to fall field work, including any remaining summer crop harvests or winter crop planting.

By Bryce Anderson;bryce.anderson@dtn.com
Source: DTN

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
11-05-09 0950ET
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